Herd all about it

Here are a few numbers that I’ve been bouncing around my head. The govt’s strategy is clear: they want the disease to spread widely, in order that we as a population may achieve “Herd Imunity”. A simple relationship that has some importance to this blogpost: if the basic reproductive rate is R0, then herd immunity…

Capacity

I was so excited by learning how to embed R code in my blogpost on Monday that I didn’t explain the motivation behind my post very well ?? Recently a lot of “flatten the curve” graphics have been doing the rounds recently on Twitter. This is a typical example which is presented and explained in…

cá cược ở việt nam

Way back in the mists of time, we did a little bit of work on “emergent constraints”. This is a slightly hackneyed term referring to the use of a correlation across an ensemble of models between something we can’t measure but want to estimate (like the equilibrium climate sensitivity S) and something that we can…

Catastrophic tipping points of no return, returned!

Science has been done and papers written! Deadlines have been met! And not by the Govt’s imaginative strategy of declaring that the deadlines no longer exist, as they are doing with NHS waiting times. Though that did seem like an appealing strategy at some points. I will blog about some of it over the next…